Latest: Catholics and Nones Powered Democrats Historic 2026 Midterm Win Exit Polls Show

A Catholic voter who backed Republicans by twenty points two years ago walked into a polling station this November and helped split his church's vote almost down the middle. He was not alone, and the numbers now explain one of the biggest stories of the 2026 midterms.

Catholics and the religiously unaffiliated were key players in the Democrats' historic midterm victory, as Republicans lost ground among most major religious groups, according to exit polls from both NBC News and CNN, reported by Religion News Service (RNS) on 4 November 2026.

Catholics, who made up about 20 percent of midterm voters, shifted from majority red in 2024 to a near-even split in 2026, according to both exit polls. Two years ago, exit polls showed Catholics favouring Republicans 59 percent to 39 percent in the NBC poll, and 60 percent to 39 percent in the CNN poll.

Political scientists and religious scholars told RNS that while faith convictions may have played a role in the shift, economic challenges were likely the biggest factor. “I don't particularly think it was a religious election,” political scientist Ryan Burge told RNS. “I think it was pretty much an economic election, inflation election, a dissatisfaction with Trump election.”

Catholic Vote Shift 2026: From 59 Percent Republican to a Tie

Before the election, Pew Research Center polling had already pointed the same way. Pew surveyed 5,062 American adults, including 3,917 registered voters, from 28 September to 4 October 2026, and found Catholics favouring Democratic House candidates 42 percent to 39 percent, with 19 percent unsure or backing another candidate.

Pew's breakdown showed two Catholic churches inside one label. Among white Catholics, 50 percent said they would support the Republican candidate and 32 percent the Democrat. Among Hispanic Catholics, 59 percent said they would support the Democrat and only 19 percent the Republican.

RNS notes the same fault line in the exit polls. The NBC poll showed Latino voters jumping from 51 percent to 64 percent Democrat between 2024 and 2026. Nichole Flores, a religious studies professor at the University of Virginia, told RNS she was not surprised by the Catholic shift, pointing to American bishops' broader emphasis on immigration, the economy and peace alongside concerns about abortion.

Religiously Unaffiliated Voters 2026: The Nones Grow to 27 Percent

The second engine of the Democratic victory was the group pollsters call the “nones.” Exit polls showed religiously unaffiliated voters growing in number, from 24 percent of the vote in 2024 to 27 percent in 2026, according to both polls, RNS reports. They also shifted further left, by 6 or 7 percentage points, reaching 77 percent Democratic in 2026.

That group includes atheists, agnostics and people who describe their religion as “nothing in particular,” RNS explains. Burge told RNS that the “nothing in particular” group is more likely to be swayed in an election and to have lower incomes. “They're the people who are going to be hurt by inflation the most,” he said.

Steven Emmert, executive director of the Secular Coalition for America, told RNS that nonreligious voters were likely reacting to Trump administration policies that blur the lines between church and state. “They were nearly 30 percent of the electorate, and so it's a group that every person running for office needs to be paying attention to,” he said.

What Did Not Move: White Evangelicals Stay at 82 Percent

Not every religious group moved. While 82 percent of white evangelicals voted Republican in both elections, their percentage of the national vote declined by more than a quarter, from 23 percent to 17 percent, according to the exit-poll analysis reported by RNS.

Pew's pre-election numbers match that picture. Pew found that roughly three-quarters of white evangelical Protestant registered voters, 73 percent, said they would vote for their district's Republican candidate, with only 12 percent backing the Democrat. White evangelicals were the only group in which a majority preferred the Republican House candidate, Pew reported.

Burge noted that while turnout data is still inconclusive, preliminary results may suggest more white evangelical voters stayed home this election, RNS reports. Ed Stetzer, dean of Talbot Seminary at Biola University, told RNS that the enthusiasm gap was evident, and that white evangelicals were certainly less enthusiastic than in 2024.

Faith Candidates Won on Nonreligious Votes

The strangest detail in the exit polls is who carried the faith candidates over the line. CNN found that Adam Hamilton, the Methodist pastor who won in Kansas, lost both Protestants (37 percent) and Catholics (47 percent) in his Senate race, but won support from 82 percent of religious nones, RNS reports.

In Texas, James Talarico won the support of 58 percent of Catholics and 77 percent of nones, according to CNN figures reported by RNS. In Michigan, CNN found that Abdul El-Sayed lost both Protestants (38 percent) and Catholics (41 percent) to Republican Mike Rogers, but won among nones (76 percent) and those of non-Christian faiths (68 percent).

Readers can follow those two Senate races in James Talarico Wins Texas Senate Seat as First Democrat Since 1988 and Breaking: Pastor Adam Hamilton Wins Kansas Senate Seat First Democrat Since 1932. Hamilton's final campaign day is covered in Latest: Adam Hamilton Prays for Trump and Rival on Final Day of Kansas Senate Campaign.

RNS cautions that statewide exit polls use a smaller, seperate sample.

The question for 2028 is whether any of this was a realignment or a rent strike. If Catholic voters moved over grocery prices and immigration raids, a better economy or a softer policy could move them back.

If the nones keep growing by three points every two years, both parties will have to learn to speak to voters who want nothing to do with organised religion at all. The next campaign will tell which story was true, and the exit polls of 2026 will be the baseline it is measured against.

But the most surprising part of this story is yet to come — keep reading.